Morrison says spending, not revenue, is the problem – sound familiar?

Few doubt that the Federal Government’s first budget was the beginning of the end for Joe Hockey and Tony Abbott. But new Treasurer Scott Morrison has jumped into the same hole and resumed digging, writes Matt Grudnoff.

We have a new Prime Minister, a new Treasurer and the promise of a new discussion on economics and tax reform.

I’m an economist, so this is pretty exciting.

Previously, I found the economic debate reactive and short-sighted, but also misinformed. The Abbott government seemed to have no idea of the causes of our economic difficulties and had even less idea about what the solutions might be.

Unable to grasp the basics, prime minister Tony Abbott and treasurer Joe Hockey blundered through different policies and then ran and hid when nothing seemed to work. Economic reform was put in the too-hard basket and the economy struggled to grow.

Even the most obvious of suggestions were battered aside, no matter who was offering advice. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens told the Government to take advantage of record low interest rates to embark on an infrastructure spending spree to improve growth and productivity. But such a program would involve more debt, and the Government had painted itself into an ideological corner where good economic policy couldn’t reach.

But all this could be behind us. A new PM and Treasurer would surely bring new policies and drop the “nope, nope, nope” economic strategy. A fresh look at the problems facing Australia could see a new reform agenda.

Well, this economist at least had a new sense of hope.

On Tuesday night, ex-secretary of the Treasury and respected economist Ken Henry talked economy with Leigh Sales on 7.30. He was asked if the Australian federal budget had a revenue problem or a spending problem. In his answer, he compared revenue and spending in 2002 under the Howard government to today. Spending is now up by 1 per cent of GDP and revenue down by 1.5 per cent.

So effectively the problem is with both revenue and spending – but 60 per cent of the problem is shrinking revenue, while 40 per cent of the problem is growth in spending.

The next day our new Treasurer was talking with the Daily Telegraph saying we had a spending problem, not a revenue problem, and that he wanted to cut taxes further. That evening he went on ABC’s 7.30 and again made the case that we had a spending problem.

Same question, two opposite answers from Henry and Morrison. So who’s right?

A quick look at the budget figures shows that it’s the respected economist and not the newly minted Treasurer. This is not a good sign. A large part of why Hockey and Abbott couldn’t tackle Australia’s economic problems was because they had built a fantasy that all the problems could be blamed on the Labor government’s spending. It makes a good pitch to the party’s ideologues, but it was never going to solve the problem.

If you don’t get the cause of a problem right, your solutions aren’t likely to fix it.

The first ‘horror’ budget was a spectacular case in point. The only way you balance a budget to abnormally low revenue is to cut things that the public really care about. That plan ended in tears, and few doubt that it was ultimately the beginning of the end of Hockey and Abbott.

But if we take Scott Morrison at his word, it seems like he’s jumped into the same hole that Hockey and Abbott dug, and resumed digging. He is not only saying that he thinks that getting the budget back to surplus should be done entirely through spending cuts, he is also saying he wants to cut taxes, and cull revenue even further.

While it might seem obvious, what is often missed is that when a politician promises tax cuts they are also promising fewer services. Well, either that or a bigger deficit.

What our new Treasurer is promising is less money to pay for your health services. Less money to educate you. Less money if you’re disabled. Less money if you’re elderly. Less money for childcare and paid maternity leave, if you have kids. If you’re one of the growing number of people looking, less money to help you find work. The list goes on.

And the lesson is clear: Fixing the budget by cutting services failed to work for Hockey and Abbott when they tried it in their first budget. Abbott’s electability never recovered.

Ken Henry also said that the next round of tax reform needed to be revenue positive, not revenue negative. We need to increase taxes, not decrease them.

Increasing government revenue does not need to be difficult or disproportionally impact on the poor. The fall in revenue has much to do with the high income tax cuts paid for by the temporary revenue increase during the mining boom and the fact that so much tax is leaking out through things like super tax concessions, negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount.

The Australia Institute examined these issues in our paper before the last budget, titled It’s The Revenue Stupid. It showed the Government could raise almost $20 billion a year simply by making our progressive tax system work the way it was intended.

A change of PM and Treasurer is the perfect time to face up to the real economic challenges that Australia faces and jettison the misguided rhetoric. Let’s hope that the Treasurer’s talk with the Daily Telegraph was a flight of fancy and not a portent of policy to come.

Matt Grudnoff is the senior economist at The Australia Institute. Follow him on Twitter @MattGrudnoff.

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    injuries. If CDW is procured, the car or truck rental business waives some or
    all of its ideal to acquire from you for actual physical damages to the motor vehicle.

    So ought to you purchase the CDW the car or truck rental agency pushes at you?
    Gurus say that most individuals you should not need to have it
    but invest in it in any case. This is a really high-priced
    slip-up!

    You can conserve on your own a great deal of trouble and needless price by undertaking a few matters.
    Very first, test your personal auto insurance coverage policy
    to see what coverage carries in excess of to rental vehicles.
    Second, see if the credit rating card you are employing features any protection for leasing.
    And eventually, test the possibilities the car rental company offers in its
    individual insurance policies.

    Lots of automobile insurance policy insurance policies include things like
    all-inclusive and collision coverage to damages
    to rental automobiles. There is no sense having to pay for additional
    if your policy includes this protection, ideal?
    Just validate the details with your insurance coverage agent ahead
    of you decline the auto rental company’s further insurance plan solutions.

    Usual motor vehicle insurance coverage procedures offer liability coverage that extends to auto rentals.
    If you injure someone in an accident when driving a rental vehicle,
    your coverage will generally deal with you.

    If your auto coverage plan does not offer these coverages
    when you are driving car or truck rentals, be confident to buy supplemental
    insurance policies from the car rental enterprise to defend your self.

    In addition, quite a few credit score cards supply
    protection for rental cars. If your credit rating card involves protection for automobile rentals that have been damaged
    in an accident, you don’t require to obtain any other added insurance coverage coverage the auto rental corporation offers you.

    Eventually, browse the vehicle rental coverage thoroughly
    and come to a decision regardless of whether or not your motor vehicle
    insurance coverage or credit rating card addresses you.
    Then go over the car or truck rental’s protection with the agent.

    Often make an educated final decision. Never give
    into stress by the vehicle rental agent.

    Determining no matter whether or not to spend for further insurance plan protection the auto
    rental companies supply can be a hard choice. Check out with your credit playing cards and existing
    motor vehicle insurance policy plan to see if they provide rental auto provisions, and if they
    you should not, you would improved think about paying out the more cash
    for extra insurance policies for your very own security.

    You should not pay out for nearly anything that
    you definitely never have to have! On the other hand, you you should not want
    to have insufficient protection in the party
    of an incident with rental automobiles.

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